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Thursday, July 13, 2017

'Citizen Public Opinion Survey - AJK' - The Report (1.0)





Below is the initial drawing board of the above


This researcher's two youngest children balancing and 'ok'ing the 10,000 completed survey forms last October

These are the very 10,000 survey forms used to collect a rich, random, representative and diverse range of public opinion throughout the 32 subdivisions of AJK. The field work took 5 years and 2 months overall but a dedicated 2 years in aggregate. It has subsequently taken almost 9 months to sift through masses of data collected during field work. We are now ready to publish the result in phases...

1st phase: 13th of July 2017 - (1.0)


- An initial quantitative summary of results generated (without analysis)
- Broad statistics of categories (of people) sampled
- This content equals ........

2nd phase: 13th of August 2017 onwards - (2.0)

- The period between Report 2.0 and 3.0 (below) will coincide with 32 public forums in each of the 32 subdivisions (tehsils) of AJK. This structure will also coincide with incremental publishing of Report 2.0 as its content develops with each forum. 
- Methodology used, comparison (with other surveys), analysis, observations and 
qualification of the unconventional manner in which this report was produced, will gradually be included in the report over this period.
- The reasoning behind dissemination of information in such a manner is primarily to take into account the capacity of our public to digest and act upon the information given. In our judgement, if a 500 page book were to be published in one static sweep, there would be less than a hundred people in this territory willing to read it in full. Therefore, information should flow incrementally to prepare our people sufficiently enough - in doses - to participate in a consensus-building exercise with a view to creating an indigenous political process.
- Thus, the public opinion survey in AJK has been a building-block towards creating OBMs (Ownership-Building Measures) in Jammu & Kashmir or (J & K) for short.
- Please visit the following link for further elaboration of this concept: 

From CBMs to OBMs

3rd phase: October 2018 - (3.0)

- A 500 page book which will comprehensively cover various aspects of public interest in Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK). It will draw heavily on field data generated between 2014 and 2017 in particular. 

It should also be remembered that any activity related to assisting unfettered self-determination of the citizens of AJK comes with a heavy price. The right to freedom of expression and movement are certainly not a given in this territory. Using one's initiative to create avenues for peaceful and participatory conflict resolution demanded a lot more in energy, determination and resources than one could have initially imagined.

Without delving into thick detail at this stage, we think the following snapshot will give readers an indication of our argument: 

This researcher had to endure:
- 2 kidnappings by Pakistan's army/clandestine agencies. 
- 1 arrest and framing of dubious charges by local law enforcement, at the behest of the institution/s responsible for the kidnappings cited above.
- A total of 31 days in detention.
- Countless other hurdles which will be elaborated on in due course

Finally, given the specific conditions in which this territory functions, giving our people as well as the rest of world time 'to chew' over the statistics presented below will - amongst other practical considerations - in time provide a sound basis for fruitful debate on the future status of J & K, one feels.

Quantitative Summary of Report:

- 10,000 citizens (who reside in AJK or are otherwise affiliated with it and who qualify under the State Subject Rule of 1927) were asked 10 questions. These were divided into 4 parts. Namely:
1) 3 questions on the enduring 'national question' of J & K
2) 2 questions on governance
3) 3 questions on the economy
4) 2 questions on social policy

- Each question offered choices/options for the interviewee but they were not limited to those choices. This interviewer tried to be as flexible and as open-ended as was practically possible without compromising structure, to derive maximum research output.
  - Each citizen (bar 15 - 20 samples) was randomly sampled by visiting each of the 32 subdivisions (tehsils) of AJK and their respective quantity was determined according to population data extrapolated from the AJK Government's Planning & Development Department's booklet of 2013.

Questions and Results:

Q1: Do you believe in the integrity of the State of Jammu and Kashmir (84,471 sq. m) as it stood up to October 1947?

Options                        
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Yes (Y)                    
9,710                      
97%
No (N)                      
214
2%
Don't know (DK)        
75
1%


   
           
Other answer:


No Response (NR)
1

Q2: If you had one choice, which of the following identities would you attach yourself to?



Options                        
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Indian (I)                  
10
0%
Kashmiri (K)              
7,286                    
73%
Pakistani (P)            
2,698                      
27%




  
Other answers:


No response (NR)
2
Self-Determination (SD)
2
Abstained (A)
1
Kashmiri & Pakistani (KP)
1

Q3: To resolve our 'national question', which one of the following countries' support should we seek?


Options
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Britain (B)
878
9%
China (C)
3,887
39%
Saudi Arabia (KSA)
2,092
21%
Turkey (T)
360
4%
UAE
269
3%
USA
1,763
18%




Other answers:

None of them (NOT)
594
6%
United Nations (UN)
64
1%
Don’t Know (DK)
25
0%
Ourselves (O)
19
0%
Pakistan (P)
15
0%
India-Pakistan (IP)
9
0%
Indo-Pak-China (IPC)
5
0%
Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC)
4
0%
Pakistan and Everyone (PE)
4
0%
All of them (AOT)
2
0%
All Muslim Countries (AMC)
1
0%
Everyone Plus (EP)
1
0%
If India agrees
1
0%
Indo-Pak-UN (IP/UN)
1
0%
Just Ourselves (JO)
1
0%
Kashmir-Indo-Pak (KIP)
1
0%
OIC and Ourselves
1
0%
OIC and UN
1
0%
Not sure
1
0%
Not these
1
0%


Q4: How do you rate our current constitutional and administrative structure?

Options  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Good (G)
806
8%
Bad (B)
3,309
33%
Weak (W)
4,704
47%




Other answers:

Very Bad (VB)
408
4%
Very Weak (VW)
348
3%
Bad – 0 (B0)
299
3%
Total other responses (TOR) listed below
126
1%
Bad and very corrupt (BVC)
44
0%
Very Good (VG)
10
0%
Very Bad – 0 (VB0)
10
0%
Bad and Corrupt (BC)
8
0%
Bad, Very Bad (BVB)
6
0%
Very, Very Bad
6
0%
Bad x 3 and corrupt (B3C)
4
0%
Bad with expletive (BF)
3
0%
Bad and Lost (BL)
3
0%
Bad and Totally Corrupt (BTC)
3
0%
Weak – 0 (W0)
3
0%
Bad x 10 (B-10)
2
0%
Bad and disastrous (BD)
2
0%
Bad like hell (BH)
2
0%
Bad – 0 and corrupt (B0 C)
2
0%
Bad and unfit (BU)
2
0%
Very Bad x 3 (BVVV)
2
0%
No response (NR)
2
0%
Very Weak – 0 (VW0)
2
0%
Weak and medium (WM)
2
0%
Bad x 2 (B2)
2
0%
Bad x 3 (B3)
1
0%
BBADNAAM – Bad and disgraceful
1
0%
Mostly Bad and a little Good (BBG)
1
0%
Bad and reckless (BR)
1
0%
Bad and totally f...ed (BTFU)
1
0%
Bad and Weak (BW)
1
0%

Q5: Is it important to have a citizen-state contract?


Options  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Yes (Y)
9,781
98%
No (N)
95
1%
Don’t know (DK)
124
1%





Q6: What are the essential elements of a viable economic policy?
(In order of importance - grade from 1 to 3)


Options                    
1) Our own currency (public treasury/fiscal policy)
2) Research and ownership of resources 
3) Opening of trade routes throughout the divided State and beyond


Combination
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
312
1,987
20%
N12
1,748
17%
321
1,684
17%
123
1,140
11%
213
945
9%
N21
934
9%
132
816
8%
231
702
7%



Explanation of this particular question/answer format:

- The highest result i.e 312 chosen by 1,987 people means that the interviewees chose number 3 first (routes) followed by number 1 (treasury) as second choice and number 2 (research) as third choice.
- The second highest result i.e. N12 chosen by 1,748 people means that N is non-applicable and presumes that an Indian or Pakistani identity favouring interviewee would want their economy to be administered/controlled by the federation whose identity they prefer. Thus, their first choice would actually be number 2 (research) and second choice number 3 (routes).                                   
- The result N21 chosen by 934 people likewise considered number 3 (routes) as their first choice and number 2 (research) as their second choice. In other words, 2 followed by 1 is actually 3 preferred to 2.

Other answers:


Response
Results
2
14
No response (NR)
12
3
6
1
5
All needed (AN)
2
Confused question
1
Don’t know (DK)
1
Not applicable (NA)
1
No comment (NC)
1
Waste of time
1

Further Note: 
- The answers 2, 3 and 1 indicate that these particular interviewees did not answer the question fully or did not understand it. 

Q7: What should be the public/private ratio of our economy?


Options  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
50/50
4,616
47%
60/40
1,507
15%
70/30
3,810
38%




Other answers:

Response
Results
80/20
22
100% (Public Sector)
17
No Response (NR)
7
Don’t know (DK)
6
30/70 (in favour of Private Sector)
5
90/10
5
40/60 (in favour of Private Sector)
1
20/80 (in favour of Private Sector)
1
Can’t fix
1
No comment (NC)
1
Un-necessary question
1

Q8: Should our natural resources be open to private companies (privatisation) ?


Options  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Yes (Y)
6,782
68%
No (N)
3,021
30%
Don’t know (DK)
196
2%



Other answer:

Un-necessary question
1

Q9: Can Muslims co-exist with Non-Muslims?


Options  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Yes (Y)
7,122
71%
No (N)
2,775
28%
Don’t know (DK)
103
1%







Q10: Should there be equal rights and (responsibilities) amongst citizens irrespective of cast, creed, colour, ideology or religion?


Options  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Yes (Y)
9,858
99%
No (N)
95
1%
Don’t know (DK)
47
0%



Survey Report 1.0 thus far:

Having provided a summary of total stats for the 10 questions put to 10,000 citizens of AJK, collected from throughout the territory and before segmenting the stats into 3 administrative divisions, then 10 districts followed by 32 tehsils (subdivisions); One feels it is important to provide stats on various categories of those interviewed to provide insight into their representative character or otherwise.

It is also important to mention that among the various (possibly) unique methods adopted to conduct this survey, was the manner in which it was financed. Namely that it was crowd-funded (by AJK citizens) and involved a proposition to each interviewee to voluntarily contribute to the expenses involved in conducting this survey. The stats for citizen responses to this somewhat 'peculiar' approach should also provide many insights, which will be further explored gradually through 'Report 2.0'.

We should also take this opportunity to provide a link below to the PDF of the survey form used, followed by some notes in relation to its structure and use.

Survey Form

This form has undergone various but very minor changes since it was first used in July 2011. Most of those changes are related to design but none of the questions have been altered from their basic inference. 

It should also be noted that over 85% of interviewees were (as unassumingly as possible - to avoid bias) asked these 10 questions face to face and in a local language (Pahari or Urdu) - without actually showing the interviewee the form - unless they specifically requested to see it. The form always remained in English and was never translated into any other language whatsoever. The form's main utility was to help us organise data meaningfully rather than anything else. 

Having said that, from amongst students that were interviewed (1,995 in total of 10,000 c. 20%), most of them were interviewed in their classrooms - whereby the form was handed out to them and each question explained in a local language, with the forms being returned after roughly 10-15 minutes, all in the interviewer's presence. Apart from that, 6 interviewees submitted their opinion online while 2 interviewees took the form and returned it after a few days.  

Gender Ratio (of interviewees throughout AJK):


Gender 
Interviewed
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Females
1,041
10%
Males
8,959
90%






- Ideally, having a 50-50 gender ratio would have roughly reflected the population of AJK. However, practically this would have been impossible for a variety of factors. Not least, because it is relatively a conservative society compared to Western Europe. There are not many women visible in public life (unlike men) and randomly sampling them could have created problems (of perception) for the researcher, despite his best intentions.
- Taking into account the above factors, obtaining a 5% ratio of women sampled was the initial target of the researcher. Women were interviewed at courts, hospitals, social welfare organisations, banks and educational institutions. The ultimate ratio achieved was indeed over 10%, which is more than the ratio of women active in public life here. 

Age Stats:

- The process of inputting the age of interviewees was introduced around midway through the survey. As will be discussed in more detail in 'Report 2.0' the whole exercise from 2011 to 2017 of collecting data was an improvised and constantly evolving one. Some aspects of data collection were discarded at stages when they were deemed unnecessary while other aspects whose importance grew during the exercise were included. Hence, the collection of age data from only the last 48.3% of those interviewed. However, the methodology and approach used to conduct the survey remained the same as from the outset, thus it could be argued that the age composition may not have been significantly different if 100% of the interviewees' age(s) were noted.
- Age given by 4,830 of 10,000 interviewees i.e. 48.3% 
- Mean average age of all interviewees asked = 33.7

Age Group
Interviewed
Rounded off to nearest whole number
16-30
2,612
54%
31-45
1,176
24%
46-60
770
16%
61 plus
272
6%

- A small quantity of students interviewed in classrooms were under 16 (c.20) but apart from them all other interviewees (students or otherwise) were above 16 while the oldest was considered to be a 100 years old!
- Thus, age not given/taken = 5,170 = 51.7%



Finance Stats:

- When one wants to contribute to resolving a public issue in any given territory, they have to utilise the natural environment surrounding them, as well as the human capital residing within or emigrated from the territory in question. This lengthy public opinion survey was financed primarily by the citizens who were interviewed and included occasional injections of support from other citizens within the territory of AJK or its diaspora. 
- The figures given here are specifically percentages derived from those that were actually interviewed. It should also be remembered that although the minimum financial support requested was 10 Pakistani rupees, almost everyone interviewed was a mutual stranger and they had to judge whether or not to finance the survey almost spontaneously, based on the short briefing we would give them at the end of the survey. Also, given that this exchange of information and finance was purely voluntary, the percentages derived should be interpreted with all the aforementioned factors in mind.
- Initially, the finance aspect was not part of the survey but it gradually drew on this researcher that; conducting this lengthy public opinion survey throughout the 32 sub-divisions of AJK could not possibly be done by receiving assistance from their family alone. 
- Thus, as the concept of exercising self-determination evolved in the researcher's mind, it was only logical that we engaged our co-citizens in assisting us with a share of their input into this much-needed public process.
- Initially, 993 of 10,000 interviewees were not asked for a financial contribution i.e 9.9% 


Responses  
Results
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Contribution in kind
289
3%
Didn’t contribute
3,169
35%
Financial contributions
5,581
62%

- Percentages don't account for those that were not asked for a financial contribution - mainly in the earliest stages of the survey - hence the percentages are derived from the 3 categories of responses listed.
Contributions in kind included: food, accommodation, kahwa, diesel, engine oil, photocopies etc.
Total aggregate cash received from survey interviewees throughout AJK = 2,77,065 Pakistani rupees.
The total amount spent on conducting the survey from beginning of field work in 2011 to publishing of report 1.0 on the 13th of July 2017 will be gradually made available (via annual income/expenditure data) as report 2.0 takes shape over the course of the next 14 months. Thus, by October 2018 a detailed 500 page book titled as 'Citizen Public Opinion Survey Report - AJK 3.0' will emerge.  
- Mean average financial contributions received from each interviewee = 49.6 Pakistani rupees.
- In total, about 65% of survey interviewees in AJK contributed in some shape or form.


Stats by Occupation:


Description
Interviewees
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Advocates/Lawyers
241
2%
Agriculturists/Farmers
378
4%
Army/Agencies
249
2%
Artisans
65
1%
Auto/Skilled
113
1%
Banking
304
3%
Building/Construction
239
2%
Business/Retail
2,465
25%
Drivers
301
3%
Property/Landlords
14
0%
Finance/Legal
60
1%
Government Servants
1,236
12%
Hotel/Food
138
1%
Journalists
113
1%
Labourers
371
4%
Mainstream Politicians
51
1%
Management/Admin
80
1%
Medical/Health
103
1%
Mobile/Software
50
1%
Personnel
285
3%
Private Educators
328
3%
Private/Unspecified
31
0%
Sales/Marketing
404
4%
Social/Political
97
1%
Students
1,995
20%
Transport Related
54
1%
Unemployed
235
2%

- As can be seen above, there were 27 broad categories interviewed which covered perhaps every occupation that exists in AJK. During the course of 'Report 2.0' each category (where applicable) will be broken down into sub-categories. At this stage we'll just brief you on those categories that may need immediate explanation:
- Property/Land refers to very large landowners or those who have an abnormally high number of commercial properties. The figure given viz. '14' may quite possibly be lower than the actual amount of interviewees deserving this category. Like most opinion survey interaction, this exercise also required an element of mutual faith and judgement.  
- Government Servants included all grades (from 1 to 22) and covered all departments operating within AJK.
- Mainstream politicians included (past and present) members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) of AJK and local members of the Kashmir Council, which practically functions as an 'Upper House'.
- Finally, the meaning of the word 'Personnel' has been tweaked here to include hairdressers, tailors and jewellers etc.



Of the 27 broad categories of occupation, only 10 of the categories have been described in the pie-chart above. Those categories that constituted 2% or less of the whole survey sample have been lumped together into one category (described as 17 other categories and totaling 19%) and are effectively the 11th piece of the pie, signified by the colour orange and could be described in clock format as between about 1030hrs and midday on the pie-chart.

Area Stats:

- As intimated earlier, the 10,000 survey sample was proportionately distributed quota wise, according to the estimated population of each tehsil (subdivision), extrapolated from data cited in AJK's Planning & Development Department's booklet namely, "Azad Jammu & Kashmir - at a glance 2013".
- Without delving into a detailed description of AJK's legal and constitutional status at this stage, it should be suffice to understand that this territory (5,134 square miles) constitutes roughly 6% of the whole territory of J & K (c. 85,000) which was ruled by the Dogra dynasty of Jammu in gradual phases of conquest or conciliation since 1820. It remained under formal British suzerainty from 1846 to August 1947.
- The status, identity, governance, economy and society of AJK have remained in legal limbo since the abrupt British colonial withdrawal in 1947. One of the multi-faceted aims of this survey has been to prepare our citizens to address this limbo in a creative but consensual manner.
- This initiative so described should give an indication that the legislature, judiciary and executive operating in AJK is ill-equipped to take the steps taken by this researcher, in conjunction with his co-citizens. 


A reasonably detailed map of AJK and its location in relation to its neighbourhood 


Division-wise



Division  
Interviewees
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Mirpur
4,055
41%
Muzaffarabad
2,652
27%
Poonch
3,293
33%



District-wise


District  
Interviewees
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Bagh
903
9%
Bhimber
1,088
11%
Hattian Bala
595
6%
Haveli
358
4%
Kotli
1,945
19%
Mirpur
1,022
10%
Muzaffarabad
1,598
16%
Neelam
459
5%
Poonch
1,302
13%
Sudhnoti
730
7%



Subdivision-wise

Sub-division (Tehsil)  
Interviewees
Rounded off to nearest whole number
Abbaspur
185
2%
Athmaqam
285
3%
Bagh
350
4%
Baloch
237
2%
Barnaala
323
3%
Bhimber
419
4%
Charoi
162
2%
Chikaar
96
1%
Dadyaal
313
3%
Darlya Jattan
139
1%
Dheerkot
394
4%
Hajeera
472
5%
Harigel
159
2%
Hattian Bala
376
4%
Haveli
183
2%
Khuiratta
253
3%
Khursheedabad
65
1%
Kotli
732
7%
Leepa
123
1%
Mirpur
709
7%
Mong
81
1%
Mumtazabad
110
1%
Muzaffarabad
1,108
11%
Nikyaal
160
2%
Palandri
278
3%
Pateeka
490
5%
Rawalakot
555
6%
Samaahni
346
3%
Sehnsa
499
5%
Sharda
174
2%
Thorar
90
1%
Trarkhel
134
1%


Mirpur Division (11 sub-divisions)


Muzaffarabad (7 sub-divisions)


Poonch (14 sub-divisions)


This brings us to the end of 'Citizen Public Opinion Survey - AJK' The Report (1.0)

Please follow our journey throughout the 32 sub-divisions of AJK, by following (Report 2.0) as it progresses until completion in October 2018 with (Report 3.0).

Contact:

Tanveer Ahmed


An independent researcher on AJK - uninterrupted since April 2005

Contact (Mobile/Whatsapp): 00923455044252
Blog: sahaafi.net
Twitter: @sahaafi
Facebook.com/sahaafi
Skype: sahaafi







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