Thursday, July 13, 2017

'Citizen Public Opinion Survey - AJK' - The Report (1.0)

My two youngest children balancing and 'ok'ing the 10,000 completed survey forms last October

These are the very 10,000 survey forms used to collect a rich and diverse range of public opinion throughout the 32 subdivisions of AJK. The field work took 5 years and 2 months overall but a dedicated 2 years in aggregate. It has subsequently taken almost 9 months to sift through masses of data collected during field work. I am now ready to publish the result in phases...

1st phase: 13th of July 2017 - (1.0)

- A quantitative summary of results generated (without analysis)

2nd phase: 13th of August 2017 - (2.0)

- A reasonably detailed 50-page report with analysis, observations and 
qualification of the unconventional manner in which this report was produced.

3rd phase: October 2018 - (3.0)

- A 300 to 500 page book which will comprehensively cover various aspects of public interest in Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK). It will draw heavily on field data generated between 2014 and 2017 in particular. 

It should also be remembered that any activity related to assisting unfettered self-determination of the citizens of AJK comes with a heavy price. The right to freedom of expression and movement are certainly not a given in this territory. Using my initiative to create avenues for peaceful and participatory conflict resolution demanded a lot more in energy, determination and resources than I could have initially imagined.

Without delving into thick detail at this stage, I think the following snapshot will give readers an indication of my argument: 

I had to endure
- 2 kidnappings by Pakistan's army/clandestine agencies. 
- 1 arrest and framing of dubious charges by local law enforcement, at the behest of the institution/s responsible for kidnapping me.
- A total of 31 days in detention.
- Countless other hurdles which will be elaborated on in due course

Finally, given the specific conditions in which this territory functions, giving our people as well as the rest of world a month 'to chew' on the statistics presented below will - amongst other practical considerations - in time provide a sound basis for fruitful debate on the future status of Jammu and Kashmir (J & K) I feel.

Quantitative Summary of Report:

- 10,000 citizens (who reside in AJK or are otherwise affiliated with it and who qualify under the State Subject Rule of 1927) were asked 10 questions. These were divided into 4 parts. Namely:
1) 3 questions on the enduring 'national question' of J & K
2) 2 questions on governance
3) 3 questions on the economy
4) 2 questions on social policy

- Each question offered choices/ options for the interviewee but they were not limited to those choices. I tried to be as flexible and as open-ended as was practically possible without compromising structure, to derive maximum research output.
  - Each citizen (bar 15 - 20 samples) was randomly sampled by visiting each of the 32 subdivisions (tehsils) of AJK and their respective quantity was determined according to population data extrapolated from the AJK Government's Planning & Development Department's booklet of 2013.

Questions and Results:

Q1: Do you believe in the integrity of the State of Jammu and Kashmir (84,471 sq. m) as it stood up to October 1947?

Rounded off to nearest whole number
Yes (Y)                    
No (N)                      
Don't know (DK)        

Other answers:
No response (NR)    

Q2: If you had one choice, which of the following identities would you attach yourself to?

Rounded off to nearest whole number
Indian (I)                  
Kashmiri (K)              
Pakistani (P)            

Other answers:
No response (NR)     2
Self-Determination (SD)     2
Abstained (A)     1
Kashmiri & Pakistani (KP)     1

Q3: To resolve our 'national question', which one of the following countries' support should we seek?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
Britain (B)                878                          9%
China (C)                  3,887                       39%
Saudi Arabia (KSA)     2,092                       21%
Turkey (T)                 360                          4%
UAE                           269                          3%
USA                           1,763                       18%
(Other major response) None of them (NOT) 594          6% 

% (Rounded off to nearest whole number) 

Other answers:
United Nations (UN)     64
Don't know (DK)     25
Ourselves (O)    19
Pakistan (P)     15
India-Pakistan (IP)     9
Indo-Pak-China (IPC)     5
Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC)     4
Pakistan and Everyone (PE)     4
All of them (AOT)     2
All Muslim Countries (AMC)     1
Everyone Plus (EP)     1
If India agrees     1
Indo-Pak-UN (IP/UN)     1
Just Ourselves (JO)     1
Kashmir-Indo-Pak (KIP)     1
OIC and Ourselves     1
OIC and UN     1
Not sure     1
Not these     1

Q4: How do you rate our current constitutional and administrative structure?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
Good (G)                  806                          8%
Bad (B)                     3,309                        33%
Weak (W)                  4,704                        47%
Very Bad (VB)            408                          4%
Very Weak (VW)         348                          3%
Bad - 0 (B0)                299                          3%
Total other responses (TOR) 126                 1%

Other answers:
Bad and very corrupt (BVC)     44
Very good (VG)     10
Very bad - 0 (VB0)     10
Bad and corrupt (BC)     8
Bad, very bad (BVB)     6
Very, very bad (VVB)     6
Bad x 3 and corrupt (B3C)     4
Bad with expletive (BF)     3
Bad and lost (BL)     3
Bad and totally corrupt (BTC)     3
Weak - 0 (WO)     3
Bad x 10 (B-10)     2
Bad and disastrous (BD)     2
Bad like hell (BH)     2
Bad - 0 and corrupt (B0 C)     2
Bad and unfit (BU)     2
Very Bad x 3 (BVVV)     2
No response (NR)     2
Very weak - 0 (VW0)     2
Weak and medium (WM)     2
Bad x 2 (B2)     2
Bad x 3 (B3)     1
BBADNAAM - bad and disgraceful     1
Mostly bad and a little good (BBG)     1
Bad and reckless (BR)     1
Bad and totally f...ed (BTFU)     1
Bad and weak (BW)     1

Q5: Is it important to have a citizen-state contract?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
Yes (Y)                     9,781                      98%
No (N)                      95                           1%
Don't know (DK)        124                         1%   

Q6: What are the essential elements of a viable economic policy?
(In order of importance - grade from 1 to 3)

1) Our own currency (public treasury/fiscal policy)
2) Research and ownership of resources 
3) Opening of trade routes throughout the divided State and beyond

Combination                    Results               % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
312                                  1,987                 20%
N12                                  1,748                 17%
321                                   1,684                 17%
123                                   1,140                 11%
213                                    945                    9%
N21                                    934                    9%
132                                     816                    8%
231                                     702                    7%

Explanation of this particular question/answer format:
- The highest result i.e 312 chosen by 1,987 people means that the interviewees chose number 3 first (routes) followed by number 1 (treasury) as second choice and number 2 (research) as third choice.
- The second highest result i.e. N12 chosen by 1,748 people means that N is non-applicable and presumes that an Indian or Pakistani identity favouring interviewee would want their economy to be administered/controlled by the federation whose identity they prefer. Thus, their first choice would actually be number 2 (research) and second choice number 3 (routes).                                   
- The result N21 chosen by 934 people likewise considered number 3 (routes) as their first choice and number 2 (research) as their second choice. In other words, 2 followed by 1 is actually 3 preferred to 2.

Other answers:
2     14
No response (NR)     12
3     6
1     5
All needed (AN)     2
Confused question     1
Don't know (DK)     1
Not applicable (NA)     1
No comment (NC)     1
Waste of time     1

Further Note: 
The answers 2, 3 and 1 indicate that these particular interviewees did not answer the question fully or did not understand it. 

Q7: What should be the public/private ratio of our economy?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
50/50                       4,616                        47%
70/30                       3,810                        38%
60/40                       1,507                        15%

Other answers:
80/20     22
100% (Public Sector)    17
No Response (NR)     7
Don't know (DK)     6
30/70     5
90/10     5
40/60     1
20/80     1
Can't fix     1
No comment (NC)     1
Unnecessary question     1

Q8: Should our natural resources be open to private companies (privatisation) ?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
Yes (Y)                       6,782                        68%
No (N)                        3,021                        30% 
Don't know (DK)          196                           2% 

Other answer:
Unnecessary question     1

Q9: Can Muslims co-exist with Non-Muslims?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
Yes (Y)                       7,122                       71%
No (N)                        2,775                       28% 
Don't know (DK)           103                        1% 

Q10: Should there be equal rights and (responsibilities) amongst citizens irrespective of cast, creed, colour, ideology or religion?

Options                    Results                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)
Yes (Y)                      9,858                       99%
No (N)                            95                        1% 
Don't know (DK)             47                        0%

Survey Report 1.0 thus far:

Having provided a summary of total stats for the 10 questions put to 10,000 citizens of AJK, collected from throughout the territory and before segmenting the stats into administrative divisions (3), then districts (10) followed by tehsils (subdivisions); I feel it is important to provide stats on various categories of those interviewed to provide insight into their representative character or otherwise.

It is also important to mention that among the various (possibly) unique methods adopted to conduct this survey, was the manner in which it was financed. Namely that it was crowd-funded (by AJK citizens) and involved a proposition to each interviewee to voluntarily contribute to the expenses involved in conducting this survey. The stats for citizen responses to this somewhat 'peculiar' approach should also provide many insights, which will be further explored in 'The Report 2.0' next month.

I should also take this opportunity to provide a link below to the PDF of the survey form used, followed by some notes in relation to its structure and use.

Survey Form

This form has undergone various but very minor changes since it was first used in July 2011. Most of those changes are related to design but none of the questions have been altered from their basic inference. 

It should also be noted that over 85% of respondees were (as unnasumingly as possible - to avoid bias) asked these 10 questions face to face and in a local language (Pahari or Urdu) - without actually showing the interviewee the form - unless they specifically requested to see it. The form always remained in English and was never translated into any other language whatsoever. The form's main utility was to help me organise data meaningfully rather than anything else. 

Having said that, from amongst students that were interviewed (1,995 in total of 10,000 c. 20%), most of them were interviewed in their classrooms - whereby the form was handed out to them and each question explained in a local language, with the forms being returned after roughly 10-15 minutes, all in my presence. Apart from that, 6 interviewees submitted their opinion online while 2 interviewees took the form and returned it after a few days.  

Gender Ratio (of interviewees throughout AJK):

Females - 1,041 - 10%
Males -     8,959 - 90%

Age Stats:

The process of inputting the age of interviewees was introduced around midway through the survey. As will be discussed in more detail in 'The Survey Report 2.0' the whole exercise from 2011 to 2017 of collecting data was an improvised and constantly evolving one. Some aspects of data collection were discarded at stages when they were deemed unnecessary while other aspects whose importance grew during the exercise were included. Hence, the collection of age data from only 48.3% of those interviewed.

Age given by 4,830 of 10,000 interviewees i.e. 48.3% 

Mean average age of all interviewees asked = 33.7

Age group                    Quantity                     % (Rounded off to nearest whole no.)

16 - 30                         2,612                        54%
31 - 45                         1,176                        24%
46 - 60                          770                          16%
61 plus                          272                           6%

A small quantity of students interviewed in classrooms were under 16 (c.20) but apart from them all other interviewees (students or otherwise) were above 16 while the oldest was considered to be a 100 years old!

Thus, age not given/taken = 5,170 = 51.7% be continued......a lot more to upload..........please bear with me...........

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