Daily Diary (DD) - Day 242 of 2025

1411hrs:

Today should be the day that my daily routine finally plugs into the right groove. There isn't any room for error remaining, given that there are only 123 days left this year.

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Matters in Rawalakot are still at a standstill as the city moves into its second day of a publicly enforced lockdown over arrests of students since August the 13th, whereby some fellow students continue their hunger strike till death.

Update (2055hrs):

The students were released at around midday, after all that battle of attrition over the past so many days. Normalcy returns to the region for the moment.

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 241 of 2025

1444hrs:

A very lax past 24 hours, reflected in the timing of today's post which is even later than yesterday.

Family commitments have kept me engaged otherwise, although that can never be an excuse to not conduct all daily duties in a timely manner.

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I was requested to draft a brief summary of the people's narrative from a historical perspective up to the present day; for the purposes of politicians, diplomats and other monitors of this territory that we describe as Jammu Kashmir & Allied (areas) or JKA for short:

The Terms ‘Jammu’ & ‘Kashmir’

Although written history can be traced back at least a couple of thousand years, the terms ‘Jammu’ & ‘Kashmir’ came together at the ‘Treaty of Amritsar’ on the 16th of March 1846, emerging as a result of the ‘Treaty of Lahore’ a week earlier. These were a series of events that signalled the downfall of the Ranjeet Singh era and the ascendancy of the British Indian colonial empire.

Both regions being adjacent to each other (viz. Jammu & Kashmir), one can trace a fluidity (like many other parts of the world) whereby each region in different eras would have had a different shape depending on its influence and relative power. No doubt, the term ‘Kashmir’ has been more widely known and used throughout history compared to ‘Jammu’.  

A lot of modern historians have tended to classify the history of the region using the terminology of religious identity. For example, there was a Hindu era pre Buddhist era (3rd century BCE to the 8th century CE) before another Hindu era emerged in the 8th century. Thereafter began the Muslim era in the 14th century viz. 1320 CE.  

Throughout history, the region has generally remained independent and this is exemplified through the writings of Pandit Kalhana in Rajatarangini (The chronological history of Kings) first published in 1148-49 CE. This historical account is generally described as the first of such in the whole Indian sub-continent & surrounding areas.

Pushing forward towards the modern day, it is generally noted by historians that the region of Kashmir lost its independence to the ascendant Mughal Indian empire in 1586 CE, followed by the Afghans who ruled this region from 1752 to 1819 before Sikh rule under Ranjeet Singh coincided with the gradual accumulation of territory by Gulab Singh, using Jammu as his power base. 

Birth of the State of Jammu & Kashmir

This is what then led to the formation of the State of Jammu & Kashmir (Referred to as J & K here on) in 1846, under British suzerainty.

Gulab Singh of Jammu and his family had prospered under Sikh Rule, signified by accumulation of territory up to Tibet (Ladakh), including Baltistan and other areas surrounding what is the Kashmir Valley. With the demise of Ranjeet Singh in 1838 began a series of in-fighting over succession and as the family of Gulab Singh also got caught up in these intrigues, they gradually made distance from what was left of the Sikh Empire and transferred their allegiance to the ascendant British colonial power. These events eventually facilitated the Treaty of Amritsar in 1846 (upon defeat of the remnants of the Sikh Empire by the British) as a quid pro quo between Gulab Singh and the British.

In turn, what was now termed as ‘Dogra Rule’ (indicating the region of Jammu where Gulab Singh and his successors originated from) developed their rule over what became c. 85,000 square miles of territory, including the regions of Gilgit Baltistan, Ladakh, the Kashmir Valley, Aksai Chin (Tibet Ha adjacent to the territory of Tibet), Jammu and what is today AJK (essentially splintered from the regions of the Kashmir Valley & Jammu).        

Although rule between 1846 and 1947 remained autocratic and harsh by some accounts, it remained consistent and stable. By the emergence of the 3rd successor to Gulab Singh (after his son Ranbir Singh followed in turn by his son Pratap Singh) Hari Singh was the nephew of Pratap SIngh (as the latter didn’t have any children) and was comparatively modern minded, introducing various socio-economic reforms including a definition of citizenship (State Subject Rule 20 April 1927), compulsory education and the introduction of a parliament (conducting 3 elections between 1934 and 1947 albeit with limited adult franchise). It is also important to note that bilateral agreements made between the State of J & K and British India were more balanced in terms & conditions while being protective of the territory of J & K, compared to all agreements made between post 1947 politicians and India & Pakistan. Examples include the Upper Jhelum Water Canal Agreement of 1904 and the Gilgit Lease Agreement of 1935.

It is also important to acknowledge that the public (or subjects under an autocratic dynasty) played a significant part in activism which led to some of the reforms described above.

Failure or Success of Outside Intervention?

It is within this framework ‘autocracy vs democracy’ that the rights movement pre 1947 should be understood rather than from a religious identity prism (viz. Hindu autocrat vs Muslim majority subjects), which tends to play into the 2 nation theory that the British colonial setup worked so successfully to establish post 1857 (Indian Independence Movement). This had led to the experiment of partitioning Bengal in 1905 and the Minto Morley Reforms of 1909 that created separate electorates for Hindus and Muslims in British India. These strategies to control the ‘locals’ compelled colonial subjects to conceptualise their rights based on their religious identity and perceive their fellow compatriots as the ‘other’, rather than the colonial power manipulating them.

What essentially should have been a peaceful transfer of power from ‘autocracy to democracy’ coinciding with British colonial departure from the region in 1947 and the end of British suzerainty in J & K, was converted into a question of accession to either India or Pakistan. The goalposts had been changed. Both the autocrat and his former subjects were marginalised in the process.

The United Nations was invoked to create a conflict resolution framework after both Indian and Pakistani troops under British command (at different intervals and under differing pretexts) were sent into the State of J & K to ostensibly protect the local population. 

It is important to note that the notion of asking the people (through a plebiscite) based on a non-binding conflict resolution framework that sough voluntary withdrawal of troops from both sides; was both a convenient way for Britain to avoid accountability and for India & Pakistan to cement their respective presence in the State of J & K, which endures to date.           

Indigenous Freedom Struggle Post 1947

With the autocrat (Hari Singh) adeptly thwarted from retaining the independence of the State of J & K and his former subjects lured into a split between an Indian (National Congress via National Conference & Sheikh Abdullah) and a Pakistani (Muslim League via Muslim Conference & Sardar Ibrahim), while simultaneously being given the impression that the United Nations would imminently resolve this matter, gradually transpired as an ‘eyewash’ for the people. 

Their rights struggle which was many decades old and for some communities even over a century old, was now tied in a straightjacket, with intermittent yet regular conflict between India & Pakistan, ensuring mounting casualties of the local population and apparently nobody even acknowledging their cries in 2025.   

Various freedom icons (Maqbool Butt being the most prominent) and rights movements have emerged to date, to try and help their compatriots break free of these modern chains of slavery; characterised by a structural absence of freedom of expression, association, assembly & movement on both sides of the divide. The Chinese encroachment into 17% of the State and looming ecological disasters throughout the region, only add to the complexities: which if pre 1947 - the autocratic ruler and his subjects had come to an understanding together - would have ensured a geopolitically neutral territory adopting the highest forms of direct democracy (surpassing the standards set by Switzerland) in a region which is most certainly - in relative terms – the most precious and thus sought after territory in the world, on account of its geographic location and the resources (particularly downhill inclined fresh water) flowing through it. 

Continued external manipulation would ensure indefinite multipolar conflict and internal strangulation of aspirations, while an internal political process without external influence based on the stakeholders binding each other into a contract clarifying each other’s rights & responsibilities (particularly over water management), would provide the most feasible opportunities for peace & prosperity of the whole region, which ultimately accounts for half the world’s population.         

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The above brief historical summary of where the people (descendants of former State Subjects of Jammu Kashmir & Allied areas) find themselves in 2025; was written on the 29th of August 2025 by Tanveer Ahmed, an independent action-oriented public policy researcher - working un-interrupted on-the-ground in AJK since April 2005 - operating through direct public funding of the people of this territory, in an inclusive & equitable manner.  

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 240 of 2025

1318hrs:

Better than yesterday but still stuck without proper synchronisation and timing of daily activities.

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 239 of 2025

1522hrs:

A delay in logging today compared to the gradual improvements made over the past few days.

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The following report provides important information about how nature has responded to the decades old ills of human kind, in the most ecologically sensitive part of the world:

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A Himalayan Crisis 

* Soumya Dutta, MAUSAM/ NAPM.

A deadly combination of Climate Change Crisis (which itself is a result of the  "extractive-expansionist-capitalist" economic model adopted globally) and all round 'insane  developmentalism' - is wrecking havoc across the Hindukush Himalayas.  

Most of these were predicted for over a decade by many climate scientists, climate & ecological justice activists and few concerned planners, but those warnings were largely ignored. 

Now it's Payback Time.

The year 2025 has most likely seen an increase in climatic disasters in the Himalayan region (excluding Earthquakes, which are not Climate change driven), primarily driven by intensified monsoon rains, cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides and glacial lake outbursts, exacerbated by climate change and western disturbances. Not to talk about the intensified Heatwaves in the lower Himalayas. 

And it's to be noted, that no La Nina (which increases rainfall in the Indian subcontinent) is prevailing in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean now, nor an El Nino. It's ENSO neutral condition prevailing now.  So the entire effects can be likely attributed to Climate Crisis & local mal-development .

From the better known media reports, no Major Himalayan disasters were reported from January to May 2025, with events ramping up during the monsoon season starting in June. The list below, which is not an exhaustive list; shows distinct, verified events with available dates or timeframes, noted from news reports and analyses.

Cumulative death tolls for the monsoon period include over 145 in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh combined, 130 in Himachal Pradesh alone (from 74 flash floods, 39 cloudbursts and 73 major landslides) and around 300 in northwest Pakistan (including Pakistani-administered Jammu & Kashmir).

A. Late June 2025: Cloudburst in Kullu and Kangra districts, Himachal Pradesh, India

A cloudburst triggered deadly floods near the Indira Priyadarshini Hydroelectric Project, killing 2 people and leaving up to 20 missing, with significant damage to infrastructure in this vulnerable Himalayan area.

B. July 2025 (multiple incidents): Flash floods and landslides across Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, India

Ongoing heavy monsoon rains led to nature's fury through multiple flash floods and landslides, causing deaths (exact toll unspecified in reports) and widespread destruction in these states, highlighting the region's increasing vulnerability to extreme weather.

C. July 28-29, 2025: Cloudburst in Mandi town, Himachal Pradesh, India.

An intense cloudburst-type rainfall event, influenced by a western disturbance, triggered a flash flood that killed 3 people and caused localized havoc in the area.

D. August 5, 2025: Flash flood in Dharali and Harsil villages, Uttarkashi district, Uttarakhand, India

A sudden flash flood, possibly caused by a cloudburst, glacial lake outburst, or glacier collapse, overwhelmed the Kheer Ganga river, submerging markets, destroying 50 hotels and 40-50 houses and damaging an army camp. At least 5 confirmed dead, with over 70 presumed dead and 43 still missing as of mid-August; a temporary lake formed upstream, raising further flood risks.

E. Early-Mid August 2025: Cloudburst and flash floods in Chashoti, Kishtwar district, Jammu & Kashmir, (Indian-administered)  

A massive cloudburst caused devastating flash floods and landslides along a pilgrimage route in this remote Himalayan area, killing at least 44 people, leaving dozens missing, and requiring extensive rescue operations by NDRF, SDRF, army and volunteers amid challenging terrain.

F. August 17, 2025: Cloudburst in Kathua district, Jammu (Indian-administered)

A severe cloudburst led to terrifying flooding, with water and debris surging through the area; army, NDRF and RSS teams conducted relief and rescue operations, though specific casualty figures were not detailed in initial reports.

G. August 22, 2025: Glacial lake outburst flood in Gilgit-Baltistan, (Pakistani-administered) 

A GLOF in this northern Himalayan region triggered cascading floods, demonstrating the dangers of warming-induced glacier melt, though specific casualty details were not immediately reported.

H. August 2025 (ongoing monsoon period): Widespread monsoon floods in northwest Pakistan (including Swat River and Mingora)

Torrential rains caused powerful floodwaters and debris flows, killing at least 227 people overall in the region, washing away homes, and triggering landslides; this is part of broader monsoon devastation in the Hindu Kush Himalayas.

I. Summer 2025 (specific dates unspecified, reported in late August): Devastating floods in Kashmir region, (Indian-administered) 

Recurring floods highlighted climate instability and human impacts, compounding geopolitical tensions and hindering solutions; exact casualties not specified but part of the season's havoc.

J. August 26, 2025: Landslide en route to Vaishno Devi shrine, Jammu (Indian-administered)

A landslide, amid monsoon rains wreaking havoc on Himalayan states, killed and estimated 13 people and injured 14, with experts warning of risks from unchecked construction along riverbanks and slopes.

The Himalayas have been ringing the warning bells very loud and clear, for the past few years especially. It's up to us all to rise to the challenge, restraint the destruction engines and heal the Himalayas. The question is not how to do that, we already know. The main question is will the profiteering juggernaut of extractive-expansionism be called to account and halted in its devastation path? And that's not a billion dollar question, but a question of choosing between the long term sustenance of the Himalayan ecosystem and its slow destruction. 

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Note: The report above has been slightly edited for clarity and ensuring the outstanding people's reference on either side of Jammu & Kashmir is acknowledged, rather than these areas being assumed to be an integral part of either India or Pakistan.   

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 238 of 2025

1035hrs:

Getting better but still many hours away from being optimum. 

We are also still in Mirpur but will definitely proceed home today. 

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 237 of 2025

1115hrs:

We continue our pursuit of increased efficiency in daily output. Though still in Mirpur I have plans to return home to Sehnsa today.

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 236 of 2025

1342hrs:

Thankfully, getting prompter in logging my daily entry. 

Still in Mirpur at in-laws. 

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We were clear that there were no snake bite vaccines in any health centre/hospital throughout AJK (even dog bite vaccines were rare if at all available). What we were not aware of was that these vaccines were present in Pakistani army camps. One such example emerged from Dawarandi Pakistani Army Camp today. 

19 year old Bilal Nayazi s/o Abdus Sattar Nayazi of village Sehr Kohali was taken to the above mentioned army camp this morning after being bitten by a snake. However, the army there said they could not provide the vaccine without permission from their superiors, which it appears they were not ready to obtain. Hence, Bilal was then rushed to the tehsil headquarter hospital in Hajeera before being further referred to the district headquarter hospital in Rawalakot. Here, he has been given some other injections (not a vaccine against snake bites) and it is possible that he may survive the ordeal.

As one can gauge these are life or death scenarios and despite the elapse of 78 years, even basic services such as snake or even dog bite vaccines cannot be made available to the public here. 

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The following questions were put to me by an academic in the UK on the 24th of July (last month). Given my commitments I had to delay my response till this morning.

Questions:

I’m trying to apply the theory of internal colonialism to AK, with the help of the following questions:

Pakistan in Azad Kashmir 

1. How did Pakistan first enter Azad Kashmir?

2. How has Pakistan impacted on the culture and social organization - indigenous values, orientations, and ways of life  - of Azad Kashmir?

3. How does Pakistan and its agents or representatives administer Azad Kashmir?

4. Are there any principles - of superiority and inferiority - utilised for social domination by Pakistan of Azad Kashmir?

5. Anything else?

Answers:

1) How did Pakistan first enter Azad Kashmir?

Initially, it entered in accordance with the Standstill Agreement (within the Indian Independence Act framework) post agreement on the 15th of August 1947 (having been offered to both India and Pakistan on the 12th of August, whereby the former deliberately stalled on deciding as subsequent events would reveal why). Although only a general announcement of this Standstill Agreement was published, indicating that some essential food items (salt), energy related oils (paraffin, petrol, diesel etc.) and postal services were to continue being sent/delivered to the State of Jammu & Kashmir (J & K for short here on), as they were during the British colonial era.

Within a few weeks Pakistan began dishonouring this agreement by stalling essential supplies, incidents of people being robbed enroute to or from Pakistan and J & K gradually became a regular occurrence. Pakistan also began quietly fomenting a rebellion (supplying arms and logistics) to the people of Poonch in particular. They also sent their own citizens to foment instability in the southern parts of what became AJK, in areas such as what constitute districts Mirpur and Bhimber today.

What were essentially a series of measures to destabilise what became the territory of AJK, gradually led to the execution of ‘Operation Gulmarg’ whereby thousands of tribal Pathan raiders (closely but subtly led and aided by Pakistan’s military which of course like the Indian army was led by the British) entered the State of J & K in the early hours of the morning on the 22nd of October 1947.

With this invasion, the Standstill Agreement had now categorically ended and Pakistan’s presence in what is today c. 35% of the State of J & K continues. 

2) How has Pakistan impacted on the culture and social organization - indigenous values, orientations, and ways of life  - of Azad Kashmir?          

In every sense. There is no aspect of life from Security, Governance, Economy & Culture that Pakistan has not adversely affected. My own estimate is that we are losing c. $20 billion (US) dollars a year on account of their presence here in AJK (I’m not including the territory of Gilgit Baltistan in this estimate). Perhaps most critical is that they claim a monopoly on all forms of public narrative in the territory (including the past, present & future).

Geographically, we have become isolated from all directions (including Gilgit Baltistan) except where we are adjacent to the territory of Pakistan. Our access to the outside world is also only via Pakistan. In such circumstances, there is almost zero choice for the people of this territory to not adopt all aspects of life and administration, as are prevalent in the adjacent areas of Pakistan.

3) How does Pakistan and its agents or representatives administer Azad Kashmir?

They infiltrate into each and every aspect of life here and try to manipulate or influence anything that is of potential economic benefit to them, or what they perceive to be harmful to the suffocating monopoly of their imposed public narrative, which is essentially designed to keep people ignorant or complicit in their corruption. 

If they can’t affect you in public spaces (by manipulating your access to economic opportunities or by marginalising you through use of targeted propaganda to defame you) they will try and influence somebody close to you in your family and create disruption, misunderstanding or fear in close members of your family, to ensure their ‘interests’ are not harmed.

4) Are there any principles - of superiority and inferiority - utilised for social domination by Pakistan of Azad Kashmir? 

Pakistan’s main theme is Muslim/Non-Muslim (especially Hindus, then Jews and then Christians) presenting themselves as protectors of Muslims globally and especially in the region vis a vis India. It is a hate driven formula which ensures that no Non Muslim can possibly sustainably live in AJK.

They do pander to the historically dominant ruling tribes/clans of the region and try to ensure their complicity in whatever they do here. However, their major distinction of superior/inferior is based on who follows their narrative and who doesn’t. Whoever follows can expect to gain favour and whoever doesn’t will inevitably face their wrath.

5) Anything else?

To understand how Pakistan behaves in AJK or for that matter, how they operated in Bangladesh (although in this specific case they tried to use race and language to impose their advantage or supposed superiority), in Gilgit Baltistan or how they deal with Balochistan, Sindh, KPK or even areas in Southern Punjab; it is important to understand that Pakistan is essentially a country designed by Britain to be a conflict economy facilitator (Korean War 1950s, Afghanistan 1980s and 2000s) and not to develop indigenously as a self sufficient economy, utilising its abundant natural resources for its people which - if human capital were its priority – would have made Pakistan one of the most lucrative markets in the world.

The elite in Pakistan is primarily made up of those families which not only facilitated British colonialism but also facilitated all previous powers too. Thus, comprising of the core of Western Punjab (essentially) it lies on the route between Kabul and Delhi, whereby most pre British powers who ruled the region, used this route to conquer Delhi, the seat of power for the past 1,000 years or so. These people have developed a genetic knack of assessing (usually correctly) whether the prevalent ruler in Delhi is stronger than the next power entering from the Khyber Pass.

In summary, complicity with larger powers is what has been in practice for at least a 1,000 years (Ranjeet Singh of the Punjab was an aberration in this regard), in the region where the Pakistani elite has its power base. This is also the modus operandi since 1947 viz. operate under the umbrella of larger powers (scratching their back so to speak) and dominate peripheral areas to extract resources to the maximum and base your public narrative in and around these realities. What may be a distinguishing factor in this era is the way religion and religious identity has been exploited. It is perhaps unprecedented in Islamic history, even from its inception c. 1,400 years ago.

End....

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 235 of 2025

1429hrs:

Getting ready to proceed to Mirpur, where I will spend the weekend with my in laws.

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 234 of 2025

2201hrs:

Getting earlier by the day but still a great many hours behind schedule. Another day at home though productivity is now decreasing. 

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Tomorrow and Sunday are outdoor activity days for certain. 

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Daily Diary (DD) - Day 233 of 2025

2247hrs:

Slightly earlier than yesterday though still late by the standards envisaged for this daily duty. 

Another day at home putting together the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle. 

I can see the shape now.

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