Luton Town have now won 7 of their last 9 games, with 1 game to go (earning 23 points from a possible 27). When there were 10 games to go I did feel that they needed to win them all to ensure they achieved a play-off position. They have only dropped 4 points (drawing 2 games) but such is the competitiveness of this league that they are still 1 point behind the final play-off position of 6th.
With 1 game to go the picture is much clearer now:
Bolton's draw with Bradford ensured that they have secured a play-off place.
Stockport just need 1 point from their last 2 games to secure their position too.
Which realistically leaves Luton competing with both Bradford and Stevenage for that spot while Plymouth can only complete with Stevenage for that play-off position.
Out of control:
Stockport - 3 points (2 games left & they only need a point while they also have a +1 GD c.f. to Luton)
Bradford - 3 points (1 game left & 5 goals advantage to Luton in GD)
Stevenage - 1 point (1 game left & 9 goals advantage to Luton in GD)
There are now effectively 5 teams vying for 3 promotion play-off places.
Stockport have a game in hand which they play on Tuesday the 28th of April, against already relegated Port Vale. This will be our next update on Wednesday (given the time difference).
Our final update will be next Saturday and the following fixtures will be noted with interest:
(Barnsley vs Stockport)
- This may be irrelevant if Stockport obtain at least a point against Port Vale on Tuesday, which is very likely. If Stockport somehow lose, then this match away against Barnsley will be hugely significant. Meanwhile, Barnsley have only won 1 of their last 6 matches while Stockport have won 3 of their last 6.
Bolton vs Luton
- Bolton have qualified for the play-offs while only winning 2 of their last 6 games, whereas Luton have won 5 of their last 6. Luton need a win while hoping either Bradford lose to Exeter (who need at least a win while hoping Leyton do not beat Burton at home, to avoid relegation) or Stevenage do not muster more than a draw against Wigan. Or unrealistically expect Stockport to lose their last 2 games against Port Vale at home (on Tuesday) and against Barnsley away on the final day of the season.
Exeter vs Bradford
- Exeter have only won 1 of their last 6 while Bradford have only won 2 of their last 6. Bradford are uncomfortable away but need only a point to secure a play-off position while Exeter must win at all costs to even have a chance of avoiding relegation, subject to Leyton not winning at home against Burton.
Northampton vs Plymouth
- Northampton are rock bottom of the league having lost all 6 of their last 6 games, while Plymouth with an outside chance of entering the promotion arena having won 3 of their last 6 games. A Plymouth win plus a Luton draw or loss against Bolton, plus a Stevenage draw or loss against Wigan would provide Plymouth that gateway to the play-offs.
Stevenage vs Wigan
- Not many people would have considered Stevenage to have given themselves such an opportunity to make the play-offs but a win against Wigan would secure Stevenage's place, irrespective of whatever happens elsewhere. Stevenage have won 3 of their last 6 while Wigan have also won 3 of their last 6. This could make for an interesting match!
Overall, Luton are in the ascendancy (surpassing even 100 point Lincoln over the course of the last 10 league games) but their destiny isn't in their hands, unlike last year in the Championship (tier 2 of the English league) when they just needed a point away to West Brom to secure their place in that tier. They lost (even though West Brom had little but pride to play for) but this year's ascendancy at the right time by Luton is something else. The following is what I wrote on various Luton Town related YouTube channels post-match after beating Barnsley 2-1:
Jack Wilshere and his team approached the Luton malaise very patiently and methodically and it has shown just at the right time. Winning 7 of your last 9 league games is no mean feat, as it even eclipses Lincoln.
Hard work and perseverance is a universal recipe for success.