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Wednesday, 30 January 2019

Daily Diary (DD) - Day 30 of 2019

0019hrs:

This tweet has provoked me into writing on an issue that I'm still working on, not least because it requires a lot of meticulous sourcing of relevant data, that the occupier is trying his utmost to conceal.

Here's a snapshot response:

My current 'estimate' which will be refined in a report to be published in 2020, is that Pakistan earns at least 20 karab annually from AJK, which is 2,000 arab (2 trillion) which is 2,000,000,000,000 rupees. In British pounds that would roughly be: £10.9 billion at a conversion rate of 184.

In US $ that would be almost 14.3 billion earned by Pakistan from AJK annually. What does it give to AJK annually? 108.2 billion rupees that is 108,200,000,000, which in British £ would be roughly 588 million or 773 million US $.

A $14.3 billion return on an investment of $773 million - annually - would mean Pakistan is earning almost 20 times what it puts into AJK.

Notes:

- These are conservative estimates and the picture will become clearer the more we focus our research on the economy of AJK this coming year.

- The AJK budget figure quoted above was what was outlined as a forecast in the budget session of the AJK Assembly in its 2018 session. However, the actual figure received annually is always lower than what is forecast.

- It should also be noted that Pakistan's economic gains need to be offset by the cost of their military presence and other administrative expenses involved in controlling the territory of AJK. Having said that, AJK is from where Pakistan derives its relevancy in the J & K dispute, an alibi for controlling Gilgit Baltistan, de facto contiguity with China and a route to the Kashmir Valley.

A similar analysis followed by a comprehensive economic survey of Gilgit Baltistan would also be eye-opening.

Later in the day, a vigorous discussion ensued between Pakistanis and AJKites. The following tweet says it all:


 2208hrs:

Earlier today, Muzaffarabad was the centre of public activity once again. An issue over parking at the AJK University spiralled out of control when the AJK police used a heavy-hand against student protestors. The police took to firing rubber bullets and tear gas shells to control the public but it resulted in a lock-down of the city (University surroundings) for over 3 hours. Injuries have ensued and it is understood that the public - already fuming over various aspects of governance, particularly with respect to the environmental costs of Pakistan's hydro projects in the region - will resume its agitation tomorrow.






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